[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 271640
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271640 
FLZ000-271845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0237
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1040 AM CST SUN FEB 27 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 271640Z - 271845Z

MESOSCALE TRENDS OVER S FL ARE BEING MONITORED FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION. IF DATA BEGIN TO SUGGEST INITIATION IS LIKELY IN THIS
AREA...A WW MAY BE REQUIRED.

BOUNDARY SEPARATING RAIN COOLED AIR FROM WARM MOIST AIR TO THE SOUTH
EXTENDS FROM NEAR PUNTA GORDA EWD TO NEAR THE PALM BEACH AREA. S OF
THIS BOUNDARY...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONSIDERABLE BREAKS
IN CLOUDS WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80.
INCREASING SURFACE HEATING AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOW 70S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE
FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET DOWNSTREAM FROM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE CNTRL GULF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN N OF THE WARM SECTOR...AND
VISIBLE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW MOSTLY FLAT CUMULUS OFF THE SW FL
COAST. HOWEVER...THE 12Z RAOBS FROM KEY WEST AND MIAMI SUGGEST VERY
LITTLE CAP AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM...AND POTENTIAL
FOR INITIATION MAY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS
FORECAST TO VEER WITH TIME. HOWEVER...SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENT
TO SUPPORT THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND IF
INITIATION OCCURS.

..DIAL.. 02/27/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

26378183 26868096 27008030 26828005 26158012 25428055
25368115 

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