[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 271401
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271401 
FLZ000-271600-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0236
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0801 AM CST SUN FEB 27 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...W CNTRL FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 271401Z - 271600Z

CONVECTIVE TRENDS BEING MONITORED JUST OFF THE W CNTRL FL CST. A
TORNADO WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PARTS OF CNTRL FL IN THE NEXT 1-2
HRS IF ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN.

LATEST COMPOSITE RADAR LOOPS HAVE SHOWN AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION/
POSSIBLE THUNDER OVER THE EXTREME ERN GULF OF MEXICO...BETWEEN 35
AND 45 MILES WSW SRQ.  NEWLY DEVELOPED CELLS IN THIS AREA ARE
EXHIBITING WEAK LOW LEVEL ROTATION AND APPEAR TO BE LOCATED ALONG
SEGMENT OF W/E WARM FRONT MOVING SLOWLY NWD ACROSS REGION.

WIND PROFILES NEAR TPA /PER VWP DATA/ HAVE SHOWN A MARKED INCREASE
IN 0-1 KM SRH IN THE PAST 2 HRS...WITH VALUES NOW APPROACHING 300
M2/S2. WHILE THE 12Z TPA RAOB DEPICTS A NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC
LOWER TROPOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT...GREATER LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY MAY
EXIST JUST SW OF TPA INVOF WARM FRONT AND CONVECTIVE CELLS.

THE CONVECTION W OF SRQ WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. IF
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPS AND/OR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION
OCCURS...A WW MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS.

..CORFIDI.. 02/27/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TBW...

28008282 28118196 27718167 27168198 26918226 27358265
27808286 

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