[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 271309
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271309 
MIZ000-WIZ000-271715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0235
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0709 AM CST SUN FEB 27 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/NRN WI INTO WRN U.P. OF MI

CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION 

VALID 271309Z - 271715Z

BAND OF MDT/OCNLY HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED TO TRANSITION EWD ACROSS
WRN/NRN WI AND THE WRN U.P. OF MI THROUGH 18Z. EMBEDDED SNOW RATES
MAY REACH 1.0-1.5 IN/HR FOR A 1-2 HOUR DURATION.

NE-SW ORIENTED BAND OF SNOW ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS WRN
U.P. OF MI/NW WI INTO SE MN...ALONG 30 W IWD TO 30 SE MSP AXIS AT
13Z. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS VORTICITY MAXIMA ACROSS NRN MN WITH
TRAILING VORT LOBE INTO NRN SD...AS SWLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FEED/WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME EXISTS INTO WI/U.P. OF MI.

AS DYNAMIC ASCENT/STRONGEST UVVS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD...QUICK
SATURATION/FAVORABLE DENDRITIC PROFILES -- PER 09Z RUC SOUNDINGS/12Z
MPX RAOB -- SUGGESTS SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION EWD ACROSS
WRN/NRN WI AND WRN MI U.P. THIS MORNING. AS EVIDENT IN 12Z MPX
RAOB...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.0-7.5 C/KM OR GREATER ARE
LIKELY TO CONTRIBUTE TO EMBEDDED BURSTS OF HEAVY SNOW.

..GUYER.. 02/27/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...

45889124 47148931 47098814 46958792 46058828 45008957
44469097 44409192 44919219 

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