[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 241158
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241158 
NJZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-241700-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0229
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0558 AM CST THU FEB 24 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND NRN VA / MD / DE / SRN NJ

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 241158Z - 241700Z

MDT TO HVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH 1 IN/HR
RATES LIKELY BY LATE MORNING. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL EXTEND FROM
NERN VA ACROSS CENTRAL MD INTO DE.

LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD ZONE OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ATOP
SURFACE RIDGE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS.  FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING BELOW 650 MB WILL INCREASE AS
THERMAL GRADIENTS TIGHTEN...AND WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR A
WSW-ENE ORIENTED ZONE OF HEAVY SNOW.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE RUC AND ETA MODELS INDICATE RAIN ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A FVX TO RIC VA LINE DUE TO WARMING ALOFT...WHILE
BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW MAINTAINS COLDER PROFILES NORTH OF THIS LINE.

..JEWELL.. 02/24/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

38227512 37877639 37847765 37467856 37597907 38887833
39187762 39437692 39627568 39257451 

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