[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 241012
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241012 
TXZ000-241145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0228
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0412 AM CST THU FEB 24 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S-CENTRAL TX...TX COASTAL BEND AND MIDDLE
TX COAST

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 38...

VALID 241012Z - 241145Z

CONTINUE VALID PORTIONS WW...INCLUDING AREA BEHIND MCS...IN ORDER TO
COVER ELEVATED...HAIL-PRODUCING TSTMS DEVELOPING ATOP OUTFLOW POOL. 
ANOTHER VERY SMALL WW MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN NEXT HOUR...FOR MIDDLE
COAST REGION AROUND PSX THAT IS EAST OF PRESENT WW 38.

LEADING PORTION OF BOW ECHO -- ENTERING WRN DEWITT COUNTY AS OF 10Z
-- IS EXPECTED TO EXIT ERN PORTION WW WITHIN ANOTHER 1-1.5
HOURS...POTENTIALLY AFFECTING PORTIONS JACKSON/MATAGORDA COUNTIES.
ACTIVITY ALSO MAY BRUSH SRN PORTIONS WHARTON/BRAZORIA
COUNTIES...ALONG AND S OF QUASISTATIONARY SFC BAROCLINIC ZONE. 
MEANWHILE SEVERE WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL ALSO WILL EXTEND SWWD DOWN TSTM
LINE AS TRAILING PORTION MOVES FROM LIVE OAK/MCMULLEN COUNTIES
TOWARDS ARANSAS/CALHOUN COUNTIES.  MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE
INFLOW-LAYER AIR MASS IS CHARACTERIZED BY SHALLOW LAYER OF
DIABATICALLY COOLED AIR...BENEATH ELEVATED MUCAPES 1500-2000 J/KG. 
SUCH FAVORABLE BUOYANCY SHOULD SUPPORT BOW ECHO AND TRAILING
CONVECTIVE LINE UNTIL IT MOVES OFFSHORE.

..EDWARDS.. 02/24/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

28169688 29469685 29289533 29039516 28729532 27759698
28139843 

29459887 29449682 28139683 28149890 

WWWW