[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 240513
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240512 
TXZ000-240715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0225
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1112 PM CST WED FEB 23 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CONCHO VALLEY/EDWARDS PLATEAU

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 240512Z - 240715Z

POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL EXIST WITH
DEVELOPING TSTMS. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

ELEVATED TSTMS HAVE SLOWLY INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER
THE PAST HALF HOUR OR SO FROM UPTON AND REAGAN COUNTIES NEWD IN AN
ARC TO N AND NE OF SJT. WHILE THIS AREA LIES WITHIN POST-FRONTAL AIR
MASS FOR SURFACE-BASED PARCELS...CURRENT SJT VWP CLEARLY INDICATES A
RELATIVELY STRONG WAA PATTERN IN THE 1-3 KM AGL LAYER. CORRESPONDING
RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT MOIST...SATURATED LAYER /ROUGHLY
ABOUT 700-800 M DEEP/ ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION IN CONJUNCTION WITH
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 7.5 C/KM IS RESULTING IN
MUCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG.

GIVEN THE LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY...POTENTIAL WILL
EXIST FOR ISOLATED...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN WITH TIME HOWEVER AS
INVERSION DEEPENS.

..MEAD.. 02/24/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...

31020210 31900121 32130008 31989878 31239799 30649862
30440068 30430171 

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