[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 240537
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240537 
TXZ000-240730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0226
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1137 PM CST WED FEB 23 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 37...

VALID 240537Z - 240730Z

THREAT CONTINUES FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR LARGE HAIL WITH ONGOING
TSTM ACTIVITY. CONTINUE VALID PORTIONS OF WW.

AS OF 0515Z...REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC INDICATED STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
SEVERE STORMS OVER EDWARDS AND KINNEY COUNTIES WITH ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT CROSSING THE RIO GRANDE INTO MAVERICK COUNTY. FORCING
FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING NEWD ACROSS NRN
CHIHUAHUA/COAHUILA MEXICO...IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT MODERATE INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE
SUSTAINING THIS ACTIVITY EWD. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY STRONG CAP
OBSERVED ON DOWNSTREAM RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER THE HILL
COUNTRY...MAIN UNCERTAINTY ATTM IS WHETHER THIS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
CAN EFFECTIVELY ERODE CAP SUCH THAT ONGOING STORMS WILL BE SUSTAINED
EWD TOWARD SAT. SMALL CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER
BANDERA AND REAL COUNTIES SUGGEST THAT THIS PROCESS MAY WELL BE
OCCURRING.

RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS INDICATE THAT AIR MASS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND
DOWNSTREAM FROM ONGOING STORMS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH
MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. GIVEN THE AMBIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF
35-45 KTS...POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST
WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN PERSIST EWD ACROSS WW 0037.

..MEAD.. 02/24/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...SJT...

29750144 30300104 30419827 28639815 28160023 

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