[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 240136
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240136 
TXZ000-240300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0224
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0736 PM CST WED FEB 23 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...TX HILL COUNTY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU REGIONS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 36...

VALID 240136Z - 240300Z

TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WIND AND
HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. A NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED PRIOR TO
03Z.

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE TO SUSTAIN
THEMSELVES THIS EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM ABOUT 50N
OF SAT TO WWD TO 50NE OF P07. STRONGEST STORMS CURRENTLY ARE LOCATED
OVER NRN VAL VERDE COUNTY WITHIN ENVIRONMENT OF STEEP LOW TO
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY /PER 00Z DRT
SOUNDING/. CLOSE INSPECTION OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS A REGION
OF FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SPEED
MAX DEVELOPING NEWD ACROSS NRN CHIHUAHUA MEXICO INTO THE TX BIG BEND
REGION. 00Z RUC APPEARS TO HAVE RESOLVED THIS FEATURE AT LEAST TO
SOME DEGREE...SUGGESTING AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM
P07/DRT ENEWD ALONG FRONTAL ZONE TONIGHT. GIVEN MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY INTO DEEP S
TX...IN ADDITION TO AMPLE DEEP-LAYER BULK SHEAR...A NEW WW MAY BE
REQUIRED PRIOR TO 03Z FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND S OF SWD-MOVING COLD
FRONT.

..MEAD.. 02/24/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...

30240259 31120239 31639755 29589731 29250075 

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