[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 240053
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240052 
OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-240445-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0223
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0652 PM CST WED FEB 23 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NM

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 240052Z - 240445Z

UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT WILL BEGIN TONIGHT ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MTNS/NERN PLAINS OF NM. SNOW RATES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 1 TO
2 INCHES PER HOUR...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER RATES DUE TO OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS.

UPPER LOW NOW OVER SRN CA WILL SLOWLY MOVE EWD INTO SRN AZ BY THU
MORNING. STRONGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS IS
INDICATIVE OF THE LARGE SCALE FORCING WHICH WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS
NRN NM FOR THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. AT THE LOW LEVELS...SFC COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST WILL HELP FOCUS LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WHILE SFC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE OK PANHANDLE AND
SRN KS. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING UPSLOPE WINDS WHICH WILL
PROVIDE STRONG FORCING FOR MESOSCALE ASCENT ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE.

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THROUGH 06Z. SINCE SFC TEMPS IN THE NERN PLAINS ARE MAINLY IN THE
LOW/MID 30S...PCPN SHOULD BEGIN AS SNOW WITH LIGHT SNOW RECENTLY
REPORTED AT LVS. FARTHER WEST NEAR SAF/SKX WHERE TEMPS ARE
WARMER...A FEW HOURS OF DIABATIC COOLING WILL EVENTUALLY RESULT IN
ALL SNOW DEVELOPING BETWEEN 03-05Z. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES OF 9 C/KG
NOTED ON 00Z ABQ SOUNDING AND RECENT LIGHTNING ACTIVITY SUGGESTS
CONVECTIVE SNOW BURSTS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL. ONCE SNOW
BEGINS...STRONG LIFT THROUGH A DEEP LAYER WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL HOURS
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

..TAYLOR.. 02/24/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

35460295 35250559 35180690 36960641 37000364 37000300 

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