[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 240047
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240046 
TXZ000-NMZ000-240245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0222
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0646 PM CST WED FEB 23 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NM INTO FAR WRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 240046Z - 240245Z

THROUGH 02 OR 03Z....POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HAIL WILL EXIST WITH
ONGOING CLUSTER OF STORMS AS IT MOVE MOVES THROUGH LEA COUNTY NM
INTO FAR WRN TX.

AS OF 0030Z....MAF RADAR INDICATED A STORM EXHIBITING MID-LEVEL
ROTATION OVER W-CNTRL LEA COUNTY NM MOVING 275/32 KTS. WHILE...00Z
MAF SOUNDING REFLECTED RATHER STABLE BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS
PRESENT WITHIN POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS...IT APPEARS THAT 00Z EPZ
SOUNDING IS MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF THIS STORM/S INITIATING
ENVIRONMENT. GIVEN CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATION AT HOB...THIS STORM
AND OTHER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO IT ARE LIKELY
BECOMING SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WITH EWD EXTENT. GIVEN RATHER STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HAIL MAY PERSIST
THROUGH 02 OR 03Z INTO FAR WRN TX...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY STORMS THAT
CAN MAINTAIN SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. STORMS SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN
THEREAFTER OWING TO THE WEAKER ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH EWD EXTENT.

..MEAD.. 02/24/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...

32890408 33390379 33450272 32960212 32280222 31990293
31940360 32250398 

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