[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 232108
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232108 
MSZ000-LAZ000-232315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0221
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0308 PM CST WED FEB 23 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND CNTRL MS...SRN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 35...

VALID 232108Z - 232315Z

A BOW ECHO CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WRN MS AND SRN LA WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN MS OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS. A WIND DAMAGE AND
HAIL THREAT WILL ACCOMPANY THE LINE. THE STRONGER CELLS AHEAD OF THE
LINE WILL LIKELY HAVE A LARGE HAIL THREAT.

SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING
WWD ACROSS CNTRL AL AND CNTRL MS. THE BOW ECHO IS LOCATED FROM THE
BOUNDARY EXTENDING SWWD INTO FAR SWRN LA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 22Z
AHEAD OF THE LINE SHOW ABOUT 35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH
COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY PRESENT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE STRONGEST
INSTABILITY ALONG THE SWRN PORTION OF THE LINE IN SRN LA WITH
ANOTHER POCKET OF HIGHER INSTABILITY EXISTING ALONG THE I-55
CORRIDOR IN SW MS AND FAR ERN LA. THESE AREAS WILL BE MOST LIKELY
LOCATIONS FOR INTENSE CELL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE LINE OVER THE NEXT
1-2 HOURS. IN ADDITION...A LARGE HAIL THREAT MAY EXIST WITH NEW
CELLS THAT INITIATE AHEAD OF THE LINE IN SE LA AND SRN MS.

..BROYLES.. 02/23/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

30278900 30039013 29879215 29829315 30029325 30319287
30749205 32169052 32628942 32668866 32158845 31208857
30728868 

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