[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 232015
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232015 
NMZ000-TXZ000-232215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0220
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0215 PM CST WED FEB 23 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 232015Z - 232215Z

...POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS INCREASING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN NM...

TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER NM...AS SFC TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE
UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S CONTRIBUTING TO SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG.
UPSTREAM SPEED MAX NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA BY THIS EVENING...FURTHER ENHANCING LARGE SCALE LIFT. SFC
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FROM THE RUC AND PROFILER DATA FROM
TUCUMCARI/WHITE SANDS SUGGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR HAS INCREASED TO
AROUND 60 KT...MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. VERY STEEP LAPSE
RATES FROM 8-9 C/KM COMBINED WITH ROTATING UPDRAFTS SUGGEST LARGE
HAIL IS POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 25-30 DEGREES AS NOTED FROM INVERTED V
SOUNDINGS...SO STRONG TSTM WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL. SVR HAIL
AND WIND PROBABILITIES OF 5 PERCENT HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE 20Z
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK TO REFLECT THIS TREND.

..TAYLOR.. 02/23/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

35060682 34720874 33380903 31800861 31990622 32160492
33200461 34360489 34930574 

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