[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 232001
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232000 
TXZ000-232200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0219
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0200 PM CST WED FEB 23 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX AND THE TX COASTAL PLAIN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 232000Z - 232200Z

SCATTERED CELLS ARE INITIATING AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE OVER SE TX
AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR MATAGORDA BAY. HAIL AND/OR
MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

19Z SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S ALONG THE UPPER TX COAST FROM GALVESTON TO MATAGORDA BAY. THIS
COMBINED WITH SFC TEMPS NEAR 80 F ARE RESULTING MLCAPE VALUES AROUND
1500 J/KG. NEW CELLS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INITIATE AS FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SE TX
AT 21Z SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 35 KT AND THIS COMBINED WITH
THE MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL
STORMS. THE STEEPEST LAPSE RATES ARE IN THE LOW-LEVELS. THIS
COMBINED WITH VEERED LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN A WIND DAMAGE
POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION...THE MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN A
HAIL POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...DUE TO SLOW STORM MOVEMENT AND MARGINAL
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THE SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED.

..BROYLES.. 02/23/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...

28439646 28459679 28839702 29269661 29849578 30249487
30349426 30129393 29819401 29239498 28519624 

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