[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 231919
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231919 
TXZ000-232115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0218
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0119 PM CST WED FEB 23 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 231919Z - 232115Z

ISOLATED CELLS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING SOUTH OF MIDLAND. THE CELLS
SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH A LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL
LIKELY THROUGH THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. A WW MAY BECOME
NECESSARY IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A COLD FRONT IN PLACE EXTENDING WSW TO
ENE FROM NEAR FORT STOCKTON TO BRADY TX. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY AND SFC HEATING IS RESULTING IN STORM INITIATION WITH
SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG. SOME CAPPING STILL EXISTS AND THE
CELLS ARE LIKELY SOMEWHAT ELEVATED. THE CELLS ARE DEVELOPING NEAR
THE COLD FRONT DRYLINE INTERSECTION WHERE SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
ARE AROUND 30 F. TEMPS IN THE 70S F COMBINED WITH 500 MB TEMPS
AROUND -17C ARE CREATING STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AS
CELLS SPREAD ENEWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY...THE STORMS SHOULD INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AND TAP INTO THE BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE EAST
ALLOWING THE STORMS TO BECOME SFC-BASED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 0-6
KM SHEAR AROUND 40 KT WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SUPERCELL
THREAT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
SUGGEST THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...INVERTED V
FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THE SJT AREA AT 21Z SUGGEST AN ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUST MAY ALSO OCCUR.

..BROYLES.. 02/23/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...

29990236 30400286 30990284 31280120 31709933 31929861
31569807 30949802 30190021 

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