[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 231827
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231826 
KSZ000-COZ000-232230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0217
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 PM CST WED FEB 23 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO/WRN KS

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 231826Z - 232230Z

BAND OF MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN CO
POSSIBLY SPREADING INTO SW KS THIS AFTN. HRLY SNOW RATES WILL BE UP
TO 1 INCH...WITH HIGHER RATES WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW ENHANCES MESOSCALE
ASCENT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES TWO MAIN FEATURES OF INTEREST. THE
FIRST IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW ACROSS CNTRL NM ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LARGER SCALE UPPER LOW OVER SRN CA. THE SECOND IS A SPEED MAX
APPROACHING FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. BOTH WILL ACT TO ENHANCE LARGE
SCALE LIFT/UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE AREA. ON THE
MESOSCALE...LOCAL UPSLOPE FLOW MAY ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES TO AROUND
1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR. RADAR LOOPS SHOW MODERATE SNOW ORGANIZING
INTO BANDED STRUCTURES ACROSS SERN CO...WITH MODERATE SNOW REPORTED
AT PUEBLO AND LA JUNTA CO OVER THE LAST 1-2 HOURS. 

MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SFC TEMPERATURE PATTERN OR
EXPECTED PRECIPITATION. IN PARTICULAR THE NAM HAS NOT RESOLVED THE
TEMPERATURES AT THE SFC...WITH THE FORECAST AT LEAST 4-6 DEGREES TOO
HIGH. CURRENT SFC TEMPS ACROSS SERN CO/SW KS ARE IN THE LOW 30S WITH
WETBULB TEMPS AROUND 31-33 DEGREES. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
DIABATIC COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONGOING PCPN WILL PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM RISING INTO THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S AS SUGGESTED
BY THE NAM AND RUC FOR THE AFTN. 

BAND OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN ENHANCING FROM LAA TO NW OF GCK...AND
IT IS NOT TOTALLY CLEAR IF HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP INTO WRN KS.
HOWEVER...POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE PLENTY COLD ENOUGH ALOFT TO
SUPPORT ALL SNOW...WITH SATURATED PROFILES THROUGH A DEEP DENDRITIC
LAYER. WITH INCREASING LIFT AND LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE IN SFC
TEMP...THE BAND OF MODERATE SNOW NOW IN SERN CO MAY DEVELOP EWD INTO
SW KS.

..TAYLOR.. 02/23/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

38810252 38680495 37430482 37330275 37500186 37810112
38830106 38840206 

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