[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 231813
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231813 
ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-232015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0216
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1213 PM CST WED FEB 23 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL MS...FAR NE LA...FAR SE AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 231813Z - 232015Z

SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND A LARGE
HAIL THREAT WILL EXIST WITH THE STRONGER CELLS THAT DEVELOP.

A SHORT LINE OF STORMS IS CURRENTLY STRENGTHENING NORTH OF THE
JACKSON AREA. THIS LINE APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTED BY INCREASING
PRESSURE FALLS AND ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE EVIDENT ON
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ACROSS CNTRL MS. THE VAD WIND PROFILE AT JACKSON
CURRENTLY SHOWS 40 KT OF FLOW AT 6 KM WHICH WILL SUPPORT AN ISOLATED
MULTICELL THREAT AS THE CELLS MOVE NNEWD ACROSS CNTRL AND NCNTRL MS.
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5 TO 7.0 C/KM AND INCREASING ELEVATED
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST OF
CELLS. AS THE CELLS GET FARTHER NORTH ACROSS NCNTRL MS...SOME
WEAKENING MAY OCCUR DUE TO COOLER LOW-LEVEL TEMPS AND WEAKER
INSTABILITY.

..BROYLES.. 02/23/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MEG...JAN...LZK...

33669120 33898930 33638839 33148831 32798853 32499029
32619146 33169159