[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 231750
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231749 
AZZ000-CAZ000-231945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0215
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1149 AM CST WED FEB 23 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CA...SWRN AND SCNTRL AZ

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 231749Z - 231945Z

SCATTERED CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ONGOING IN SE CA WITH NEW CELLS
INITIATING IN FAR SERN CA. AS THE STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
SPREAD NEWD ACROSS SWRN AZ...THE HAIL THREAT WILL INCREASE.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LOW CENTERED OVER THE LA BASIN
WITH A BAND OF STRONG ASCENT MOVING NEWD ACROSS SERN CA. LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EWD INTO SW AZ
MAKING CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS SFC
TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM THIS AFTERNOON. 17Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A
MOIST AXIS EXTENDING NWD FROM THE GULF OF CA WITH LOWER TO MID 50 F
DEWPOINTS EXTENDING AS FAR NORTH AS THE I-10 CORRIDOR IN SW AZ. THIS
COMBINED WITH COLD TEMPS ALOFT FROM THE UPPER-LOW IS CREATING STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7.0 C/KM WITH SBCAPE VALUES OF
1000 TO 1500 J/KG. AS CELLS INITIATE AND MATURE...THE STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND INSTABILITY WILL MAKE HAIL A THREAT ACROSS SE CA AND THE
SW DESERT OF AZ.

..BROYLES.. 02/23/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...SGX...

32401429 32741586 33331618 34051605 34631558 34881479
34791370 34161189 33591145 32701147 32001223 

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