[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 231635
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231635 
MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-231830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0214
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1035 AM CST WED FEB 23 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX...LA...SRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 231635Z - 231830Z

A SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE WITH A CONVECTIVE LINE CURRENTLY
ACROSS EAST TX WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. A
HAIL THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED CELLS THAT DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE LINE.

A BOW ECHO IS CURRENTLY MOVING EWD AT ABOUT 30 KT ACROSS FAR E TX.
ANOTHER SMALLER BOW IS MOVING NEWD ACROSS NW LA. THESE CONVECTIVE
LINES ARE NEAR A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY ORIENTED EAST TO WEST
ACROSS CNTRL LA AND SRN MS. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPE VALUES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG. EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER SHOULD KEEP INSTABILITY RELATIVELY WEAK THIS AFTERNOON BUT
HIGHER INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NEAR THE COASTAL SECTIONS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 21Z ACROSS SRN MS SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 40
KT WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN ORGANIZATION WITHIN THE LINE. AS LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN THIS AFTERNOON...A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE BETTER WIND DAMAGE THREAT LIKELY IN THE 19Z
TO 21Z TIMEFRAME ACROSS SE LA AND SWRN MS AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE LINE. THE HAIL THREAT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
CELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE THAT DEVELOP IN AREAS OF LOCALLY HIGHER
INSTABILITY.

..BROYLES.. 02/23/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...

31949409 31019489 30419589 30159551 30039270 29939095
29908962 30248862 31018853 31918852 32238887 32459147
32499348 

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