[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 231350
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231350 
LAZ000-TXZ000-231545-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0213
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0750 AM CST WED FEB 23 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS E TX AND WRN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 231350Z - 231545Z

DISCUSSION AREA BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.  ORGANIZED MCS --
CONTAINING SEVERAL STRONG TSTMS...LEWP FORMATIONS AND SMALL BOW
ECHOES -- IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ESEWD ACROSS REMAINDER E TX...SABINE
VALLEY AND WRN LA THROUGH MID-LATE MORNING.  ACTIVITY WILL BE AIDED
BY ASSOCIATED MCV ESTIMATED BETWEEN CORSICANA-PALESTINE TX AS OF
1345Z.

VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES INDICATE SOME THREAT FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS
AND/OR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING BOWS...ESPECIALLY ONCE FOREGOING INFLOW
AIR HAS BEGUN HEATING DIABATICALLY.  TSTMS ALSO MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF
MCS AND BECOME SUPERCELLS.  ALSO...HEAVY RAIN RATES 2-3 INCHES/HOUR
WILL OCCUR AS COMPLEX MOVES OVERHEAD...LOCALLY HIGHER INVOF CELL
MERGERS.

SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE FROM NEAR LFK
ESEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN LA TO NEAR SIL.  THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE
LITTLE THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z...AND WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR MAXIMIZED
LIFT AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR ON MESO-BETA SCALE AS TSTM COMPLEX PROCEEDS
ACROSS REGION. VWP AND RUC SOUNDINGS OVER SE TX INDICATE STRONG
VEERING WITH HEIGHT...ENLARGING HODOGRAPHS ENOUGH TO YIELD 0-1 KM
SRH 100-150 J/KG FOR EWD MOVING STORM...AND 0-3 KM SRH NEAR 300
J/KG.  MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS INCREASED DRYING
DEVELOPING UPSTREAM FROM THIS ACTIVITY IN MID-UPPER LEVELS - IN A
LARGE AREA OF CENTRAL/SRN TX NOT SAMPLED BY RAOBS.  MODIFIED RUC
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MUCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG...AND MLCAPE RISING TO
AROUND 1200 J/KG NEXT 3-4 HOURS.

..EDWARDS.. 02/23/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...

32509494 32369423 32209318 31779256 31189242 30809276
30469332 29789535 30149635 30609696 31069590 31419513
32009501 32349507 

WWWW