[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 230742
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230741 
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-230945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0212
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0141 AM CST WED FEB 23 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CENTRAL/SRN/ERN OK...CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL/NE
TX...PORTIONS WRN AR

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 34...

VALID 230741Z - 230945Z

TSTMS NOW OVER SERN OK ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS WRN AR
BY 10Z...LARGE HAIL BEING PRIMARY CONCERN.  AREA WILL BE MONITORED
FOR POSSIBLE WW.

MEANWHILE SEVERE MCS ACROSS CENTRAL TX -- INCLUDING BOW ECHO OVER
PORTIONS COMANCHE/HAMILTON/ERATH COUNTIES AS OF 715Z...WILL MOVE EWD
TOWARD I-35 CORRIDOR BETWEEN MCLENNAN AND JOHNSON
COUNTIES...PRODUCING COMBINATION OF WIND DAMAGE...LARGE HAIL AND
EXTREME RAIN RATES OF 3-4 INCHES/HOUR. VWP FROM GRK SHOWS DEEP
LAYER OF 30-40 KT LLJ FLOW IN INFLOW REGION OF THIS COMPLEX...WHICH
SHOULD SUSTAIN THIS ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES EWD...GIVEN RICH MOISTURE
AND LARGE MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IN RUC SOUNDINGS.  ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT W AND NW OF BOW -- TO VICINITY ABI -- SHOULD MOVE ENEWD
TO NEWD WITH LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE.

ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL OK GENERALLY HAS WEAKENED...HOWEVER...
AIR MASS ABOVE SFC IS EXPECTED TO RECOVER OVER PORTIONS N-CENTRAL/NW
TX AND SWRN OK BEHIND ONGOING CONVECTIVE SWATH.  WHILE LOW LEVEL WAA
MAY NOT BE AS VIGOROUS AS FARTHER E WHERE LLJ IS STRONGER...IT STILL
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO INCREASE/MAINTAIN LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
INTO 8-8.5 DEG C/KM RANGE.  THIS WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED MUCAPES
1000-1500 OVER WRN PORTION WW 34 FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS. 
THEREFORE...THOUGH COVERAGE PROBABLY WILL NOT BE AS DENSE AS WITH
ERN OK AND CENTRAL TX CLUSTERS...SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
ANY SUSTAINED TSTMS WHICH DEVELOP.

..EDWARDS.. 02/23/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...SJT...

34869464 35939449 35809373 35709349 35469317 35129305
34619313 34099338 33849355 33549412 33379482 

31189899 36039860 36029447 31189509 31209870 

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