[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 220529
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220529 
CAZ000-220630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0200
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 PM CST MON FEB 21 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN CA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 27...

VALID 220529Z - 220630Z

ISOLATED WATERSPOUT AND/OR TORNADO POSSIBLE THROUGH 08-09Z. 
HOWEVER...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO BE TOO LOW FOR AN
ADDITIONAL WW. THUS...WW 27 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 06Z.

IR IMAGERY INDICATED AN APPARENT LEADING AREA OF MID-UPPER LEVEL
ASCENT...CURRENTLY EXTENDING N-S ACROSS LOS ANGELES COUNTY TO
OFFSHORE OF SRN CA ACROSS THE GULF OF SANTA CATALINA.  THIS ASCENT
MAY BE AIDING IN THE INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY CURRENTLY LOCATED
OFFSHORE OF SRN CA...WITH ONE OR TWO EMBEDDED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/POTENTIAL TSTMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARD 06-07Z OFFSHORE OF SRN CA AS A SECOND
AREA OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT...ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH AT
33N 122W...APPROACHES THIS REGION.  BACKED SURFACE FLOW LOCATED
ALONG AND JUST OFF THE COAST OF SRN CA ALONG ERN PERIPHERY OF
OFFSHORE CONFLUENCE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
FOR A BRIEF WATERSPOUT AND/OR TORNADO WITHIN WEAK INSTABILITY.

..PETERS.. 02/22/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PSR...VEF...SGX...HNX...LOX...

34341941 34821936 34821757 34361653 32631529 32561731 

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