[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 220344
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220343 
SCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-220515-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0199
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0943 PM CST MON FEB 21 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL PORTIONS OF AL/GA INTO SRN SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 28...29...

VALID 220343Z - 220515Z

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN LIKELY THROUGH 06-07Z...
WITH HAIL AND/OR STRONG WIND GUSTS BEING THE MAIN THREATS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
AL/GA INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...AS WSWLY 30 KT LLJ IMPINGES ON
WAVY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM FAR SRN SC WNWWD OVER CENTRAL
GA TO CENTRAL AL AND NRN MS.  DESPITE DECOUPLING OF BOUNDARY LAYER
AIR MASS...INFLOW OF MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ELEVATED AIR MASS WILL
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STORMS...WITH ACTIVITY TRACKING TO THE ESE INTO
CENTRAL GA/SRN SC.  LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITHIN ENTRANCE REGION OF MID
LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND/OR STRONG WIND
GUSTS THE PRIMARY THREATS.  00Z RUC/NAM BOTH INDICATED THAT THE LLJ
WILL VEER TO THE W/WNW BETWEEN 06-09Z...BECOMING ORIENTED MORE
PARALLEL TO THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...AS THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE MID
LEVEL JET MOVES AWAY FROM THIS REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
DECREASE IN LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SUBSEQUENT DECREASE IN SEVERE
THREAT AFTER 06-07Z.

..PETERS.. 02/22/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

33818537 34028383 33688169 33137946 32747976 32238057
31858135 31798382 31768574 32348694 33258809 33598663 

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