[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 212159
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212158 
MSZ000-ARZ000-212330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0196
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0358 PM CST MON FEB 21 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NW MS AND ECNTRL/SE AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 212158Z - 212330Z

TSTMS MAY CONTINUE TO INITIATE PROGRESSIVELY WWD THROUGH NCNTRL/NW
MS AND POSSIBLY INTO ECNTRL/SE AR. RISK FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING
WINDS WOULD EXIST GIVEN FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

WSWLY FEED AHEAD OF SAGGING FRONTAL ZONE CONTINUES TO DRIVE
ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NE MS ATTM...AND OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR WWD ACROSS NW MS
INTO ECNTRL/SE AR. RECENT VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
SEMI-CONCENTRATED CU/TCU FIELD FROM JUST E/NE OF PBF TO 35 N OF TUP.
IN SPITE OF NEUTRAL SYNOPTIC SUPPORT AND SOMEWHAT MARGINAL MOISTURE
PROFILES...MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE MAY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT WWD INTO ECNTRL/SE AR WITHIN WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS.
MARGINAL MOISTURE PROFILES...AS EVIDENCE OF MIXING SFC DEWPOINTS
ACROSS CNTRL/SCNTRL AR...SUGGESTS THAT DEVELOPMENT IS LESS CERTAIN
PROGRESSIVELY WWD INTO ECNTRL/SE AR.

GIVEN ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WOULD EXIST. IN SPITE OF LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL
VERTICAL WIND PROFILES...40-60 KT MID LEVEL WLY WINDS ABOVE WEAK
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STORM ORGANIZATION. MODIFIED
18Z RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AIRMASS ALREADY MODERATELY UNSTABLE --
MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG -- WITH NEGLIGIBLE CINH.

..GUYER.. 02/21/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...

34818995 34588945 33548943 33419012 33419183 34339205
34619124 

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