[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 212148
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212147 
SCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-212345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0194
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0347 PM CST MON FEB 21 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MS...NRN AL...NCNTRL GA...WRN SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 26...

VALID 212147Z - 212345Z

A HAIL AND/OR WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL CONTINUE WITH THE STRONGER
CELLS AS THE STORMS MOVE ESEWD ALONG A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
NRN AL AND NRN GA.

SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SEWD
ACROSS ERN TN INTO NRN GA. SFC DEWPOINTS SOUTHWEST OF THE BOUNDARY
ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F. THIS COMBINED WITH SFC TEMPS OF 70 TO
75 F ACROSS NRN MS...NRN AL INTO NCNTRL GA IS CREATING MODERATE
INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION...A 70 KT MID-LEVEL JET OVER TN IS
ENHANCING 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUE ACROSS THE REGION WHICH IS CREATING AN
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. A BRIEF TORNADO THREAT WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE BOUNDARY WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS
ENHANCED. LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH SUPERCELLS NEAR THE
STRONGER INSTABILITY IN NRN AL AND FAR NW GA WITH A WIND DAMAGE
THREAT ALSO POSSIBLE DUE TO UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES AND STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF THE WARM FRONT.

..BROYLES.. 02/21/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

32688178 32848246 33238416 33438812 33578946 34378988
34738891 34638532 34528350 33318106