[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 212153
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212153 
CAZ000-220000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0195
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 PM CST MON FEB 21 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...WCNTRL CA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 212153Z - 220000Z

TSTMS INCREASING ALONG THE COAST RANGES WEST OF I5...AND AROUND SFO
AND THE SACRAMENTO VLY...COULD POSE A THREAT OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

MODEST SURFACE HEATING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HAS HELPED TO BOOST
SBCAPE VALUES TO AROUND 1000 J/KG FROM WCNTRL CA COAST INLAND TO I5
AND NORTH TO SAC. AREAS OF DEEP LAYER CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE LARGE CYCLONE JUST OFFSHORE...
COUPLED WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND UPSLOPE FLOW...HAVE LEAD TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF LINES OF INCREASING CONVECTION. STRONGEST STORMS
APPEAR TO BE MOVING INTO KINGS COUNTY ATTM...WITH ADDITIONAL STRONG
REFLECTIVITY NOTED TO THE EAST OF OAKLAND. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
ORGANIZATION...STRONG BACKGROUND ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LOW...AND VERY COLD AIR ALOFT...COULD RESULT IN HAIL AND/OR STRONG
WINDS/ISOLATED TORNADO WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGER CELLS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

..CARBIN.. 02/21/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HNX...LOX...STO...MTR...

34151903 34141853 35971887 37501982 39082100 39182179
38802253 38282274 38052295 37122236 36362165 35682110
35382083