[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 211351
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211350 
ALZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-211445-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0189
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0750 AM CST MON FEB 21 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN AND MID TN...NERN AR...EXTREME NRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 22...23...

VALID 211350Z - 211445Z

PRONOUNCED BOW ECHO CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD 50-60 KT FROM NWRN TN INTO
NRN MID TN.  TRAILING LINE OF STRONG-SEVERE CONVECTION EXTENDS SWWD
TO MS/TN BORDER AND MAY BACKBUILD INTO EXTREME NRN MS. CONTINUE
PRECONVECTIVE PORTIONS WW UNTIL SCHEDULED EXPIRATION OR PASSAGE OF
SEVERE WEATHER.  NERN MS...MIDDLE TN AND NRN AL REGION WILL BE
MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL OR REPLACEMENT WW DURING
NEXT HOUR.

SFC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES WARM FRONT FROM NEAR ANB NWWD TO ABOUT 50
N MSL. NRN BOWING SEGMENT WILL OUTRUN WARM FRONT AND GRADUALLY
BECOME MORE ELEVATED.  HOWEVER...STABLE LAYER NE OF WARM FRONT
APPEARS TO BE GETTING MORE SHALLOW BASED ON REGIONAL VWP...RUC FCST
SOUNDINGS AND MODIFIED 12Z BNA RAOB.  BROAD REAR-INFLOW JET IS
EVIDENT JUST BEHIND BOW...CHARACTERIZED BY 50-70 KT FLOW IN 7-10 KFT
AGL LAYER.  THEREFORE...PRIND POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR
STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS TO PENETRATE TO SFC ACROSS BNA AREA...ALONG WITH
THREAT FOR OCCASIONAL LARGE HAIL.  ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES E OF BNA AND OVER DEEPER STABLE LAYER.  FARTHER
SW...CONVECTION IS CLOSER TO BEING SFC BASED WITH MUCAPES 1300-1700
J/KG AVAILABLE.  ALTHOUGH FLOW IS GENERALLY UNIDIRECTIONAL THROUGH
DEEP LAYER...STRONG SPEED SHEAR IN LOW LEVELS WILL MAINTAIN
ELONGATED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS.  RUC SOUNDINGS AND VWP INDICATE UP
TO 70 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDMORNING OVER NERN MS...NRN
AL AND MID TN.

ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED SUBSTANTIALLY BEHIND LINE
BECAUSE OF STABILIZATION AND LOW LEVEL CAA.  THEREFORE WWS CAN BE
CLEARED NW OF ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

..EDWARDS.. 02/21/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...MRX...LMK...

34339086 36399090 36578802 34578805 

35008804 36348802 36708504 35378501 

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