[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 211114
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211113 
KYZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-211315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0188
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0513 AM CST MON FEB 21 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 22...

VALID 211113Z - 211315Z

SCATTERED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE GENERALLY EWD ACROSS WW WITH
CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL.  ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MAY
OCCUR OVER WRN TN IN WARM SECTOR AND MOVE INTO WW AS WELL.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT ALIGNED N-S THROUGH
MKL AREA...THEN CURVING SEWD ACROSS NRN AL NEAR HSV.  ACTIVITY IN WW
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ABOVE RELATIVELY STABLE...PREFRONTAL BOUNDARY
LAYER. AIR MASS ABOVE WARM FRONTAL LAYER IS CHARACTERIZED BY
MUCAPES RANGING FROM AROUND 1200 J/KG NEAR AND W OF BNA...TO AROUND
600 J/KG INVOF CSV.  40-50 KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR NOTED THROUGH LOWEST
6 KM OF CAPE BEARING LAYER.  EXPECT GENERAL WEAKENING TREND AND
LESSENING OF POTENTIAL HAIL SIZE WITH EWD EXTENT ACROSS MIDDLE/ERN
TN...BUT OCCASIONAL SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS FAR E AS CSV.

..EDWARDS.. 02/21/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...HUN...MEG...

35008802 36328800 36688501 35418500 

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