[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 211438
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211438 
CAZ000-211645-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0190
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0838 AM CST MON FEB 21 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN CA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 211438Z - 211645Z

ROTATING CELLS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ONSHORE INTO SRN CA THIS
MORNING. A THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE WILL EXIST WITH THE STRONGER CELLS
WITH A TORNADO ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE AREA MAY
NEED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LATER THIS MORNING.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST OFFSHORE ALONG THE SRN CA
COAST. WELL-FOCUSED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND
STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR CELL
INITIATION OVER THE NEXT 3-5 HOURS. VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY IS
CURRENTLY PRESENT IN SRN CA WHICH WILL LIMIT THE LIGHTNING POTENTIAL
FOR ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. HOWEVER...THE 12Z SAN DIEGO SOUNDING
SHOWS VEERED LOW-LEVEL WINDS BELOW 700 MB WITH 0-3 KM SRH VALUES
JUST ABOVE 300 M2/S2. THIS COMBINED WITH 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR MINI-SUPERCELLS WITH THE STRONGER CELLS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO OR WIND DAMAGE.

..BROYLES.. 02/21/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGX...HNX...LOX...

32621715 33431768 34031864 34271974 34592003 34891957
34661790 33911683 32881651 

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