[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 211030
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211029 
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-211230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0187
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0429 AM CST MON FEB 21 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN AR...MO BOOTHEEL...WRN TN...EXTREME
NRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 20...21...

VALID 211029Z - 211230Z

ONE OR BOTH WWS MAY NEED TO BE REPLACED BY 12Z WITH A NEW SEVERE
TSTM WW BASED ON CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND FAVORABLE INFLOW AIR
MASS.  SEVERE TSTM LINE...WITH EMBEDDED BOW AND LEWP
FORMATIONS...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD 50-55 KT...LOCALLY FASTER
NEAR APEX OF BOWS.  WIND DAMAGE IS MAIN THREAT WITH SPORADIC LARGE
HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE...AS ACTIVITY CROSSES REMAINDER WW 19 AND ENTERS
WRN PORTION WW 20.  THIS LINE MAY BACKBUILD FAR ENOUGH S TO AFFECT
EXTREME NRN MS...SO UNTIL LINE PASSES OR WW REPLACEMENT IS
NECESSARY...MS PORTION WW 20 SHOULD BE KEPT VALID AS WELL.  WW
19...MEANWHILE...CAN BE CLEARED BEHIND MCS.

ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALSO IS POSSIBLE
BETWEEN AR CONVECTION AND SFC WARM FRONT -- ANALYZED AT 10Z ROUGHLY
N-S THROUGH MKL.  IN THIS WEDGE OF WARM SECTOR AIR...MUCAPE
1300-1800 J/KG IS INDICATED...BASED ON RUC FCST SOUNDINGS.  VWP
INDICATES STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA PROFILE...CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK
VEERING BUT 40-50 KT VECTOR SHEAR THROUGH 0-1 KM AGL LAYER.

..EDWARDS.. 02/21/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...

34669138 36419141 36488802 34728803 

35259314 36539310 36479093 35209099 

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