[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 200138
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200137 
MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-200530-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0175
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0737 PM CST SAT FEB 19 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SE ND/NE SD AND SRN/WCNTRL MN

CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION 

VALID 200137Z - 200530Z

SNOW EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM SE ND/NE SD INTO MUCH OF SRN/WCNTRL
MN THIS EVENING...WITH LOCALIZED AREAS OF 1 IN/HR RATES POSSIBLE.
FZRA/SLEET TO BECOME MORE PREVALENT AND EXPAND EWD IN A CORRIDOR
ACROSS ECNTRL/SE SD INTO SW MN.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH ERN
WY/WRN SD. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...INCREASING 850-700 MB WAA/THETA-E
ADVECTION REGIME TO CONTRIBUTE TO EXPANDING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE ND/NE SD AND WCNTRL/SRN MN THIS EVENING. IN
ADDITION TO FAVORABLE UVVS/DENDRITIC PROFILES...18Z NAM/21Z RUC
PORTRAY INCREASING PRESENCE OF WEAK STABILITY/MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL COMPONENT THROUGH THE EVENING...SUGGESTING AN
INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED BANDING AND 1 IN/HR SNOW RATES.
WITH CONTINUAL ADVECTION OF ELEVATED WARM LAYER AS SAMPLED IN 00Z
OAX/00Z ABR RAOBS...18Z NAM/21Z RUC FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
SLEET AND/OR FZRA MAY BECOME MORE BECOME MORE PREVALENT/SPREAD EWD
IN A CORRIDOR FROM ECNTRL/SE SD INTO SW MN...ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT
ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

..GUYER.. 02/20/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A 
SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...
06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT
RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD.  THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE
USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28.

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...

46540000 46719815 46499554 45769419 44819299 43909261
43429312 43599650 43909740 45089927 45490052 46230078 

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