[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 192323
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192322 
AZZ000-CAZ000-200045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0173
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0522 PM CST SAT FEB 19 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY OF FAR ERN CA/SW AZ

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 192322Z - 200045Z

THREAT FOR ISOLD SEVERE TSTMS INCREASING ACROSS THE LOWER CO RIVER
VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR WIND GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THESE STORMS MOVE ALONG THE INTERSTATE 10/8
CORRIDORS.

ON PERIPHERY OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SRN CA...MATURING
CLOUD TOPS/VOLUMETRIC RADAR DATA DEPICT STRENGTHENING/ORGANIZING
TSTMS IN THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY ALONG/SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 W/SW
OF BLH. AS THESE STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EWD...FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION MAY OCCUR IN THE SHORT TERM. DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS IN
THE VALLEY IS CHARACTERIZED MID/UPPER 60S F TEMPS WITH MID/UPPER 50S
F DEWPOINTS...RESULTING IN MUCAPES AS HIGH AS 750-1000 J/KG. IN
ADDITION TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY...SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER
TRAJECTORIES BENEATH 40-50 KTS OF W/SW MID LEVEL FLOW /PER AREA
VWPS/ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STORM ORGANIZATION...WITH STORMS LIKELY TO
EXHIBIT SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS GIVEN THE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES.

..GUYER.. 02/19/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...VEF...

32841545 34121535 34791473 34931396 34611327 33971293
32841312 32621335 32551436 

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