[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 200610
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200610 
WIZ000-MNZ000-201015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0176
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1210 AM CST SUN FEB 20 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL MN...AND CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL WI

CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION 

VALID 200610Z - 201015Z

AXIS OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED HEAVY SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL MN
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ESEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL WI DURING
THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SNOWFALL RATES TO 1"/HR ARE
POSSIBLE WITH SMALL...EMBEDDED BANDS.  

AT 05Z...A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM SURFACE LOW
OVER THE NRN NEB PANHANDLE EWD ACROSS SERN SD...FAR SRN MN...AND
ACROSS SRN WI. A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE ND/SD
BORDER WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS CENTRAL MN OVERNIGHT...WITH FOCUSED
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WITHIN 800-600MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MN ESEWD ACROSS CENTRAL WI.
APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD INCREASE FORCING FOR ASCENT
WITHIN FRONTAL ZONE DURING THE NEXT 3-6 HRS. ADDITIONALLY...RUC
SOUNDINGS INDICATE INCREASINGLY DEEP/SATURATED DENDRITE GROWTH /-12C
TO -16C/ LAYERS WHICH SHOULD MAXIMIZE PRECIPITATION
EFFICIENCY...ESPECIALLY AFTER 09Z. THESE FACTORS SHOULD LEAD TO
INCREASING SNOWFALL RATES OVERNIGHT...UP TO 1"/HR IN A BAND FROM MSP
SEWD TO BETWEEN LSE/EAU AND TO MKE/OSH AREA. SNOW RATES SHOULD BE
LESS NORTH OF A BRD TO GRB LINE...WHERE SUPPLY OF LOW-LEVEL ARCTIC
AIR WILL CAUSE SUBLIMATION OF SNOWFALL AND A SHARP NRN EDGE TO
HEAVIER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

..BANACOS.. 02/20/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A 
SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...
06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT
RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD.  THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE
USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28.

ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX...FGF...ABR...

42778750 43639109 44669439 45209628 45889641 46349607
46089391 44979039 44228824 43938753 43408753 

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