[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 191854
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191853 
COZ000-NMZ000-UTZ000-192300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0172
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1253 PM CST SAT FEB 19 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SW CO/NRN NM/EXTREME SE UT MTNS ABOVE 6500 FT

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 191853Z - 192300Z

HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR SE
UT/SW CO/NRN NM MTNS ABOVE 6500-7000 FT. RATES OF 2 IN/HR OR GREATER
WILL BE POSSIBLE /ESPECIALLY ABOVE 8000 FT/ WITH CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS.

LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW SNOW LEVELS BETWEEN 6500-7000 FT AT
18Z...WITH A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW OBSERVED AT DRO BETWEEN 15Z-18Z.
HEAVY SNOW HAS ALSO BEEN REPORTED AT CPW /10K FT/ OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS. DOWNSTREAM OF MINORING CA TROUGH...DYNAMIC ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET TO CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT INTO SW FACING SLOPES
OWING TO 40-60 KT MID LEVEL JET. STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF
7.0 C/KM OR GREATER WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED
SNOW RATES THIS AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSNOW. 12Z
NAM/15Z RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SNOW LEVELS WILL FLUCTUATE LITTLE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

..GUYER.. 02/19/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A 
SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...
06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT
RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD.  THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE
USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28.

ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...GJT...

37650631 37280622 36800617 36410615 36280654 36340741
37020778 37290856 37480909 37660943 38040953 38520917
38750852 38840822 38750735 38500706 38250682 37910656 

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