[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 191818
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191817 
AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-192045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0171
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1217 PM CST SAT FEB 19 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NV...SE CA...WRN AZ

CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS/SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL 

VALID 191817Z - 192045Z

LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST...APPEARS TO BE INCREASING
ACROSS THE LOWER COLORADO VALLEY.  IN CONJUNCTION WITH SURFACE
HEATING...RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM EARLIER PRECIPITATION...AND MID-
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION...THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO DESTABILIZATION
WHICH APPEARS LIKELY TO BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. 

DEEPENING CONVECTION IS ALREADY EVIDENT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY NEAR
NEEDLES CA/KINGMAN AZ AREAS...AND REMAINING INHIBITION LIKELY WILL
WEAKEN WITHIN NEXT HOUR OR TWO.  MOST UNSTABLE CAPE UP TO 500-1000
J/KG APPEARS POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON...SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS IN A MODERATELY SHEARED SOUTHWESTERLY MEAN FLOW
REGIME.  ISOLATED CELLS MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE HAIL
WHICH MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH OR EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS...WITH GUSTY
WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE.

..KERR.. 02/19/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...VEF...

35911560 36291459 36251347 35611249 34521240 33461250
32981317 33021359 33651414 33661466 34071521 34971572 

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