[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 191659
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191659 
CAZ000-191900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0170
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1059 AM CST SAT FEB 19 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN CA COASTAL AREAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 191659Z - 191900Z

ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL PERSIST NEAR COASTAL AREAS
THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON...BUT WW NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO
EXPECTED LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE OF THREAT.

SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN BROADER SCALE CYCLONIC MID/UPPER
FLOW CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY PROGRESS INLAND OFF THE PACIFIC INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES.  LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGEST ONSET OF MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF THIS FEATURE LIKELY WILL NOT OVERSPREAD
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL AREAS UNTIL SOMETIME AFTER THE 21-23Z
TIME FRAME. UNTIL THIS OCCURS...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL REMAIN
SUPPORTIVE OF NEW THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN WATERS OFF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COASTAL AREAS.  

AS LOW-LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW VEERS TO A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON...THREAT FOR STRONGER CELLS MOVING ASHORE MAY SHIFT
FROM JUST SOUTH OF THE LOS ANGELES AREA INTO CLOSER PROXIMITY TO SAN
DIEGO. THOUGH CAPE IS GENERALLY ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG OR
LESS...MODERATELY STRONG AND VEERING WIND FIELDS WITH HEIGHT ARE
CONTRIBUTING TO SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUSTAINED UPDRAFT ROTATION. 
THUS...POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TORNADOES/DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...AND SOME HAIL...WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH
WITH INCREASING INHIBITION LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

..KERR.. 02/19/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGX...

33721818 33641768 33361733 32931714 32591721 

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