[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 152126
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152125 
ILZ000-MOZ000-152330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0165
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0325 PM CST TUE FEB 15 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...S CENTRAL TO E CENTRAL MO AND SW IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 152125Z - 152330Z

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 22-23Z ALONG THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT FROM NEAR TBN TO NEAR STL.  THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY
PRODUCE ISOLATED/MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG OUTFLOW GUSTS WHILE
SPREADING EWD INTO IL...BUT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CU/TCU DEVELOPMENT AS OF 20Z FROM NEAR THE
COLD FRONT/REMNANT LEE TROUGH INTERSECTION ENEWD TO NEAR STL. 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 70S THIS AREA WHILE
DEWPOINTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO AT LEAST 50 F...RESULTING
IN UNCAPPED PROFILES WITH SBCAPE APPROACHING 750 J/KG. STEEP LAPSE
RATES/COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND MID LEVEL FLOW OF 35-45 KT MAY
SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINAL SEVERE
HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.  HOWEVER...THE MODEST INSTABILITY AND
RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SUGGEST THAT THE OVERALL SEVERE
STORM THREAT WILL REMAIN RATHER LIMITED.

..THOMPSON.. 02/15/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...

38439175 38869061 39408991 39498940 39258901 38708885
37848986 37189120 36999206 37309258 37629255 37999223 

WWWW