[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 151947
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151947 COR
MIZ000-152300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0164
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0147 PM CST TUE FEB 15 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SRN LOWER MI

CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION 

VALID 151947Z - 152300Z

RAIN WILL BEGIN MIXING WITH SNOW NEAR 21Z OVER W-CNTRL MI...AND WILL
CHANGE TO HEAVY WET SNOW OVER THE REMAINING AREA AROUND 00Z. LOCAL
SNOW RATES OF 1 IN/HR MAY MATERIALIZE BY 00Z.

FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL INCREASE ALONG W-E ORIENTAL FRONTAL
ZONE.  LATEST RUC MODEL INDICATES SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN UVVS
WITHIN 600-550 MB LAYER THROUGH THE PERIOD...SUGGESTING EFFICIENT
AND PROLONGED PRODUCTION OF DENDRITES ALOFT.  WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY WELL ABOVE FREEZING AS OF
18Z...COMBINATION OF COLD ADVECTION AND COOLING DUE TO HEAVY SNOW
ALOFT WILL CAUSE A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW.

..JEWELL.. 02/15/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A 
SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...
06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT
RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD.  THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE
USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28.

ATTN...WFO...DTX...GRR...

42488315 42438355 42348468 42308630 42678622 42948621
43148504 43278411 43628257 43258254 43018238 42798250
42558285 

WWWW