[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 161247
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161247 
VTZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-161645-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0166
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0647 AM CST WED FEB 16 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN PA/WRN THROUGH NERN NY

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 161247Z - 161645Z

...MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WRN NY
AND SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND NERN NY THIS MORNING WITH HRLY
RATES UP TO 1 INCH...

SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A LOW PRESSURE NEAR BFD SWWD TO AGC/PKB
WITH A WARM FRONT NEWD ACROSS SERN NY. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
RAPIDLY COOLING CLOUD TOPS AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER IN/IL
APPROACHES THE AREA. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION COMBINED WITH
DYNAMICAL COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL
CAUSE A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW ACROSS CNTRL/NRN NY AFTER 15Z. RECENT
OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE MODERATE  TO HEAVY SNOW IS
OCCURRING FROM GKJ/BUF...WITH 1 INCH PER HOUR RATES OBSERVED AT BUF.


STRONG FRONTOGENESIS THROUGH A DEEP LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO BANDING
OF SNOW THIS MORNING. ISOLD LTG FROM THE NLDN AND IN THE DKK
OBSERVATION SUGGEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OF SNOW BANDS. POINT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BUF/ROC/IAG INDICATE PROFILES WILL BECOME
MORE ISOTHERMAL WITH TIME WITH STRONG LIFT CONCENTRATED IN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THIS WILL SUPPORT A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS MORNING ACROSS WRN NY...EVENTUALLY
SPREADING INTO CNTRL NY AND NRN VT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN.

..TAYLOR.. 02/16/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A 
SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...
06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT
RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD.  THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE
USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28.

ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

45077376 44807532 43437887 42008026 41568022 41317865
41467717 43367453 44337339 44547324 44947328 45047348 

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