[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 131853
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131853 
WIZ000-MNZ000-132300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0159
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1253 PM CST SUN FEB 13 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/NRN WI AND E-CENTRAL MN

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN 

VALID 131853Z - 132300Z

AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 21-00Z ACROSS
CENTRAL/NRN WI AND E-CENTRAL MN. FREEZING RAIN RATES AROUND 0.05"/HR
ARE POSSIBLE.

THROUGH 14/00Z...ELONGATED AXIS OF PRECIPITATION AND COINCIDENT
DEFORMATION ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY NNEWD AT 10-15 KT
THROUGH THE CENTRAL/WRN GREAT LAKES REGION AND UPPER MS VALLEY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DEFORMATION ZONE IS LOCATED ON NRN
FRINGE OF WELL-DEFINED 850-700MB WARM ADVECTION REGIME NORTH AND NE
OF UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER NWRN MO.

ANTECEDENT AIR MASS HAS BEEN TOO WARM TO SUPPORT FROZEN
PRECIPITATION ACROSS SRN MN SEWD TO SRN WI. HOWEVER...SOMEWHAT DRIER
BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS E-CENTRAL MN AND CENTRAL/NRN WI ASSOCIATED
WITH ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH OVER ERN ONTARIO SHOULD ALLOW WET BULB
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING WITH ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA. NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FREEZING RAIN AND
ISOLATED SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF A LINE FROM OSH TO EAU TO
STC BEGINNING AROUND 13/21Z. MARGINAL GROUND TEMPERATURES MAY LIMIT
ICING TO ELEVATED SURFACES ACROSS CENTRAL WI/E-CENTRAL MN WITH
HIGHER PROBABILITY OF GROUND-BASED ICING ACROSS NRN WI AS
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS NWD TOWARD 14/00Z.

..BANACOS.. 02/13/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A 
SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...
06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT
RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD.  THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE
USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28.

ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX...

44519006 44939144 45619365 45859393 46259393 46709366
46869338 46779263 46319110 45979017 45618946 45338878
45028815 44758787 44338761 43998768 43868802 44118874 

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