[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 131806
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131805 
LAZ000-TXZ000-132000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0158
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1205 PM CST SUN FEB 13 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX...SW LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 131805Z - 132000Z

POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE TSTMS WAS SLOWLY INCREASING OVER SE TX AND
PARTS OF WRN LA THIS AFTERNOON. MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND SMALL AREAL
COVERAGE SUGGESTS OVERALL THREAT MAY BE LIMITED.

INITIAL CLUSTER OF ELEVATED TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH SMALL SCALE MID
LEVEL IMPULSE/WIND MAX HAS WEAKENED AND MOVED ACROSS NWRN LA THROUGH
LATE MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...ADDITIONAL TSTMS ARE NOW
INCREASING IN COVERAGE OVER UPPER TX COASTAL PLAIN WEST AND NORTH OF
HOU. AIR MASS IN THIS AREA WAS BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AS LOW
LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS /STEEPENING LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATE PLUME/ BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD GREATER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE.
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DATA WAS SUGGESTING THAT WEAK SURFACE-BASED
INHIBITION WILL BE OVERCOME WITH ANOTHER FEW DEGREES OF HEATING AND
ALLOW STORM UPDRAFTS TO FURTHER STRENGTHEN BY TAPPING MLCAPE ON THE
ORDER OF 500-800 J/KG.

UPSTREAM IMPULSE VISIBLE IN WV IMAGERY OVER WEST TX SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST MODEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION
INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS FORCING...COUPLED WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY
AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...WOULD SUGGEST A
GRADUAL DIURNAL INCREASE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL. PRESENT INDICATIONS
SUGGEST A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS MAY EVOLVE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON
WITH ATTENDANT THREATS OF HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED TORNADO.

..CARBIN.. 02/13/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

29099519 28939640 29469678 30229656 31259643 31829628
32189568 32469420 31009349 29999349 

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