[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 132308
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132307 
LAZ000-TXZ000-140100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0160
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0507 PM CST SUN FEB 13 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS E TX AND EXTREME WRN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 132307Z - 140100Z

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP THROUGH ABOUT
14/02Z...ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF DIFFUSE SFC WIND SHIFT/DRYLINE. 
THIS BOUNDARY WAS ANALYZED AT 23Z NEAR A CRP-CLL-PRX LINE AND WILL
MOVE EWD 15-20 KT ACROSS E TX. MAIN THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL.

VIS IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL TOWERS GLACIATING JUST E OF CLL...AND
OTHER SMALLER TCU NEWD ALONG/AHEAD OF BOUNDARY TO NEAR TYR. 
ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG W EDGE OF STRONGEST
DEEP-LAYER BULK SHEAR...AND IN ZONE OF VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW. 
PROFILER DATA NEAR CLL/PAT...HGX VWP DATA AND RUC HODOGRAPHS ALL
SUGGEST WLY COMPONENT OF BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIMIT CONVERGENCE NEAR
BOUNDARY AND ALSO LIMIT LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN ADJACENT MOIST SECTOR. 
HOWEVER...STRONG MIDLEVEL DPVA AND ASSOCIATED THERMAL TROUGH ARE
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES INVOF WIND SHIFT ZONE...AND COMBINING WITH
MID 50S TO LOW 60S F SFC DEW POINTS TO YIELD AROUND 800-1200 J/KG
MLCAPE.  GIVEN STRENGTH OF COOLING ALOFT AND FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER
WIND PROFILES FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL TSTMS...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH MOST VIGOROUS CELLS.

..EDWARDS.. 02/13/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...

30909402 30059484 29759578 29959640 30279654 30719631
32689451 32649391 31939348 31129385 

WWWW