[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 070101
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070101 
IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-070600-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0148
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0701 PM CST SUN FEB 06 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/NRN KS NEWD INTO SWRN/CENTRAL
IA

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

VALID 070101Z - 070600Z

LIGHT FREEZING RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG A NARROW CORRIDOR FROM
CENTRAL KS NEWD TO NEAR DSM BY 06Z. FURTHER NORTH...A ZONE OF
LIGHT-MOD SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER FAR NCENTRAL KS NEWD INTO WCENTRAL
IA. OVERALL LIQUID ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN 0.05 IN/HR.

UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE TX PANHANDLE WILL LIFT NEWD
INTO CENTRAL KS DURING THE NEXT 6 HOURS. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
ANALYZED AT 00Z EXTENDED FROM A SFC LOW NEAR HUTCHINSON KS NEWD TO
NEAR AMES IA. RECENT SWD MOTION OF THIS FRONT AVERAGED AROUND 10
MPH. THE SFC FREEZING ISOTHERM LAGGED THE FRONT ANYWHERE FROM 30-50
MILES IN KS TO AROUND 20 MILES IN IA. LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
AIDED BY APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL/ERN KS NEWD INTO CENTRAL IA THROUGH 06Z.
THE 00Z TOP...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE 00Z DDC SOUNDING...ALONG
WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE RUC AND ETA INDICATE THAT A NARROW
ZONE OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING AIR CENTERED BETWEEN 850-900 MB
EXTENDS SW-NE FROM CENTRAL KS INTO SWRN IA. AS THE SFC COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ADVANCE SWD...THROUGH 06Z...IT IS ANTICIPATED
THAT THE GREATEST PROBABILITY OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE IN A 30
MILE WIDE CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM HUT/GBD NEWD TO NEAR DSM. FARTHER
NORTH OF THIS CORRIDOR...A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CHANGE
OVER TO LIGHT AND POSSIBLY MODERATE SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF SCENTRAL
NEB/NCENTRAL KS NEWD INTO WCENTRAL IA.

..CROSBIE.. 02/07/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A 
SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...
06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT
RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD.  THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE
USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28.

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

41459380 40529542 39099694 38189787 37989832 38649924
40319834 41759530 42139407 

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