[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 041712
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041712 
WAZ000-042315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0146
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1112 AM CST FRI FEB 04 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...WASHINGTON CASCADE MOUNTAINS

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 041712Z - 042315Z

SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO DECLINE STEADILY ACROSS THE CASCADE
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG TROUGH/FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
SNOWFALL RATES COULD APPROACH 1 INCH PER HOUR NEAR SOME OF THE NRN
CASCADE PASSES THIS AFTERNOON.

SATELLITE LOOPS CONFIRM SHORT-TERM MODEL DATA INDICATING A STRONG
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING OVER WRN/CNTRL WA EARLY
TODAY. LOWER ELEVATION RAINFALL RATES OF 0.10 TO 0.15 INCHES PER
HOUR HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AROUND PUGET SOUND/BELLINGHAM AREA IN THE
WAKE OF LEADING BAROCLINIC CLOUD BAND. SNOW LEVELS ACROSS THE NRN
CASCADE RANGE WERE ALREADY AROUND 3000 FEET...BUT RISE UP TO BETWEEN
5000 AND 6000 FEET FARTHER SOUTH AROUND SMP PER RECENT ACARS
SOUNDINGS. RUC AND ETA ARE FCSTG FREEZING LEVEL WILL DROP STEADILY
THROUGH LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT RAIN TO CHANGE
TO WET SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH SNOW LEVELS IN THE CNTRL WA
CASCADES AROUND 4000 FEET BY THIS AFTERNOON.

MAIN SYNOPTIC SCALE UPPER LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CASCADE RANGE COINCIDENT WITH THE
FALLING SNOW LEVELS. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL DEEP MOISTURE...LOW STATIC
STABILITY...AND MODEST OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW
HOURS OF HEAVY WET SNOW AROUND PASS LEVEL THROUGH 05/00Z.

..CARBIN.. 02/04/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A 
SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...
06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT
RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD.  THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE
USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28.

ATTN...WFO...OTX...PDT...SEW...PQR...

48942004 47702080 46502133 46122167 46182209 46912179
47392158 48052152 48332150 48572162 48942194 

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