[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 040554
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040554 
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-041100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0145
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1154 PM CST THU FEB 03 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN CT...CNTRL MA...SRN NH...EXTREME SRN ME

CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION 

VALID 040554Z - 041100Z

AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IS RAPIDLY EXPANDING OVER THE THREAT
AREA AND IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED RATES BRIEFLY APPROACHING
ONE INCH AN HOUR BEFORE RAPIDLY DECREASING IN INTENSITY AFTER 09Z.

UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG CURVATURE IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR BWI IN RADAR AND WV IMAGERY AND IS
CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND DEEP MID LEVEL
ASCENT THAT WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN INCREASING RAPIDLY IN INTENSITY WITH ONE HOUR
RAINFALL RATES OF OVER ONE TENTH OF AN INCH PER HOUR OBSERVED AT
KGON IN A HEAVIER BAND JUST SOUTH OF THE SNOW AREA.  NAM PHYSICS
SCHEME PRODUCES ALL FROZEN PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA AND HOURLY
PRECIPITATION FROM 12KM NAM INDICATES PEAK RATES OF 6 TO 8 TENTHS
PER HOUR BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z BEFORE ENDING COMPLETELY AROUND 11Z. 
STRONGEST RATES AND DURATION ARE FORECAST FOR AREAS IN MA AND NRN
CT.  LOW LEVEL ISOTHERMAL LAYER IN 00Z GYX AND OKX COMBINED WITH
FRESHENING NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD
SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION ALL SNOW. SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL SHOULD BE
BRIEF OVER SOUTHERN ME AND NH. THE RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION...NEAR
FREEZING TEMPERATURES...AND MODERATE RATES SHOULD LIMIT
ACCUMULATIONS.

..SCHNEIDER.. 02/04/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A 
SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...
06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT
RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD.  THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE
USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28.

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...ALY...

41907300 42327291 42817250 43247171 43687094 43997030
43807005 43137075 42417158 41837236 

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