[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 031254
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031254 
MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-031700-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0144
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0654 AM CST THU FEB 03 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...EXT ERN WV/WRN VA/WRN MD

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

VALID 031254Z - 031700Z

A MIX OF MODERATE SNOW OCCASIONALLY APPROACHING ONE INCH PER HOUR
AND FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED IN THE THREAT AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

LARGE SCALE ASCENT CONTINUES OVER THE THREAT AREA WITH ONGOING SNOW
AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. 06 UTC NAM FORECAST SHOWS AREA OF ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE MOVING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN 14 AND 17 UTC. 
ENHANCED UPWARD MOTION IS LIKELY WITH A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW AS
CVA INCREASES FROM THE WEST BETWEEN 15 AND 18 UTC IN ADVANCE OF MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE.  LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE SHALLOW NEAR-SURFACE DRY LAYER WITH 12 UTC
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGF. THUS...ROOM EXISTS FOR
ADDITIONAL WET BULB COOLING KEEPING PRECIPITATION TYPE FROZEN
THROUGH 18 UTC.

..BRIGHT.. 02/03/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A 
SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...
06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT
RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD.  THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE
USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28.

ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...RLX...

37688087 38137998 38877883 39547876 39647779 39127751
38067865 37157971 37038103 

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