[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 012204
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012204 
TXZ000-OKZ000-020100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0138
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0404 PM CST TUE FEB 01 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN TX/FAR SRN OK

CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION 

VALID 012204Z - 020100Z

ALTHOUGH RAIN WILL LARGELY REMAIN PREDOMINANT PRECIP-TYPE THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS NRN/CNTRL TX INTO SRN OK...A
RELATIVELY QUICK CHANGE-OVER TO MDT/HEAVY SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
COINCIDENT WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION RATES/DURATION ON THE
MESOSCALE.

AT 22Z...MID/UPPER 30S SFC TEMPS AND MID 30S DEWPOINTS LARGELY
PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF NRN/CNTRL TX AND FAR SRN OK. 18Z FWD OBSERVED
RAOB/18Z RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS FEATURE SHALLOW /SUB 1 KM/ WARM
LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE. HOWEVER MELTING EFFECT /IN ADDITION TO
DIURNAL COOLING/ MAY BE CONDUCIVE TO A RELATIVELY QUICK CHANGE-OVER
TO MDT/HEAVY SNOW COINCIDENT WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
RATES/DURATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS IS
APPARENTLY SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS INVOF JCT /JUNCTION TX/.

..GUYER/GOSS.. 02/01/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A 
SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...
06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT
RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD.  THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE
USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28.

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

32909719 32869717 31849777 31589843 31799929 32709940
33669942 34439916 34669845 34579785 34339742 33659698 

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