[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 011318
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011317 
OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-011815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0137
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0717 AM CST TUE FEB 01 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NM/W TX INTO NCNTRL TX/SRN OK

CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION 

VALID 011317Z - 011815Z

SNOW WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP AND SPREAD FROM W TX INTO PORTIONS OF NW
TX AND EVENTUALLY SRN OK. LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW RATES ARE LIKELY...WITH
HOURLY RATES OF 1-2"/HR.

IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS ARE TAKING SHAPE THIS MORNING...AS NOTED IN
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. STRONG LIFT HAS BEEN ONGOING OVERNIGHT
ACROSS TX...WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS AND THE WARM CONVEYOR CIRRUS
EXTENDING INTO CNTRL/NERN OK. UPPER TROUGH AXIS NOW OVER SONORA WILL
QUICKLY MOVE OUT INTO THE SRN PLAINS THIS MORNING/AFTN...WITH LARGE
SCALE LIFT LIKELY FOCUSED FARTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED BY
MODELS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN DIGGING ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF UPPER
TROUGH IN THE WEST. THIS WILL AMPLIFY THE DOWNSTREAM SYSTEM...AND
LIKELY GUIDE IT ON A TRACK FARTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED
BY THE MODEL GUIDANCE / DUE TO THE FUJIWARA OR "DUMBBELLING"
EFFECT/.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY HAS PRECIPITATION ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS W
TX...WITH A DEFORMATION BAND SETTING UP FROM SOUTHWEST OF WINK TO
SOUTHEAST OF LUBBOCK. 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM MIDLAND AND AMARILLO
INDICATE THE EFFECTS OF DYNAMICAL COOLING SINCE THE 00Z UPPER AIR
OBSERVATIONS. THE WARM LAYER NEAR 700MB ON BOTH SOUNDINGS HAS SINCE
COOLED/MOISTENED...WITH A COMPLETELY SATURATED SOUNDING AT MIDLAND.
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUPPORT ALL SNOW...SO ANY INITIAL RAIN SHOULD
QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM FORT WORTH AND
NORMAN INDICATE SOME DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS...BUT VIRGA WILL HELP
SATURATE THE COLUMN.

SHORT-TERM MODELS WILL BE TOO SLOW WITH THEIR QPF SOLUTION...AND
LIKELY TOO FAR SOUTH GIVEN RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS. MODELS DO HOWEVER
AGREE THAT SNOW RATES OF UP TO AN INCH OR TWO PER HOUR WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR THE DEFORMATION BAND AS IT SETS UP THIS
MORNING. FARTHER EAST AROUND ABILENE/DFW METROPLEX WHERE SFC TEMPS
ARE IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S...PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS
RAIN...EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO SNOW LATE THIS MORNING NEAR ABILENE
AND EARLY AFTERNOON NEAR DFW. WITH ISOTHERMAL PROFILES AND A
SATURATED DENDRITIC LAYER...PERIOD OF MOD/HEAVY SNOW ARE POSSIBLE IN
A SWATH FROM INK/DYS THIS MORNING...SPREADING NORTH AND EAST THIS
AFTN.

..TAYLOR.. 02/01/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A 
SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...
06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT
RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD.  THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE
USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28.

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

34390069 34090210 32000615 30890609 30230409 30650138
31299930 31649841 31959768 33079739 34009755 34419871 

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