[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 020120
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020120 
OKZ000-TXZ000-020415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0139
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0720 PM CST TUE FEB 01 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN OK INTO NRN TX

CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION 

VALID 020120Z - 020415Z

ALTHOUGH RAIN MAY REMAIN PREDOMINATE THROUGH MID EVENING ACROSS MUCH
OF CNTRL/SRN OK INTO NRN TX...A CHANGE OVER TO MDT/POSSIBLY HVY WET
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SUSTAINED/HIGHEST PRECIPITATION RATE
AREAS ON THE MESOSCALE.

SIMILAR TO VERY SHALLOW /APPROX 600 M/ ABOVE FREEZING LAYER IN 00Z
FWD RAOB...00Z OUN RAOB SUGGESTS INITIAL SHALLOW WARM LAYER UPON
EFFECTIVE SATURATION. ACCORDINGLY AT 01Z...MESONET OBS DEPICT
MID/UPPER 30S SFC TEMPS PERSISTING ACROSS SRN OK/FAR NRN TX. IN
SPITE OF THIS SHALLOW LAYER OF WARM AIR...MELTING EFFECT /IN
ADDITION TO DIURNAL COOLING/ WILL PROMOTE A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
WITHIN THE MOST SUSTAINED/HIGHEST PRECIPITATION RATE AREAS. IN
PRESENCE OF WEAK THERMAL ADVECTIONS...SUCH SFC TEMPERATURE DROPS
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED THROUGH 01Z ACROSS TILLMAN/COMANCHE/GRADY
COUNTIES OK BASED UPON MESONET TRENDS BENEATH SW-NE ORIENTED
PRECIPITATION BAND/S.

..GUYER.. 02/02/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A 
SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...
06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT
RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD.  THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE
USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28.

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...

35219631 33989628 33509672 33459740 33629804 34119905
34629910 35069881 35559800 35629749 35549684 

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