[MCD] SWOMCD

Thu Dec 15 11:24:57 UTC 2005

ACUS11 KWNS 151122
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151122 
FLZ000-151315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2566
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0522 AM CST THU DEC 15 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN/CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 151122Z - 151315Z

NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS WRN/CENTRAL FL
PANHANDLE.

ORIGINAL MCS COLLAPSED WHILE MOVING INTO MORE STABLE AIR
MASS...EXCEPT FOR SEVERAL CELLS ON ITS SRN END WHICH BROKE AWAY AND
REMAIN RELATIVELY DISCRETE AS THEY MOVE NEWD TOWARD WALTON/BAY
COUNTY COASTAL WATERS. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED S OF AL
COAST AND WRN FL PANHANDLE COAST...INVOF COMBINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
AND MARINE/WARM FRONT...AND ALONG NNE-SSW ORIENTED COLD FRONTAL BAND
EXTENDING SEAWARD FROM MOB BAY.

SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES MARINE/WARM FRONT NOW ABOUT 40 NM OFFSHORE AL
COAST AND WRN FL PANHANDLE...DRIFTING N.  FRONT THEN EXTENDS SEWD
INVOF BUOY 42036 IN NERN GULF. STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA AND SLY SFC
FLOW COMPONENT MAY RESULT IN THIS FRONT -- AND ASSOCIATED NEAR-SFC
BASED BUOYANCY -- REACHING COAST DURING NEXT 3-4 HOURS.  AIR MASS S
OF FRONT WILL BE FAVORABLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES 500-1000 J/KG. 
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED INVOF MARINE FRONT. 
ALONG THAT BOUNDARY...ELY FLOW COMPONENT -- STRENGTHENED AROUND S
RIM OF PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH MCS OUTFLOW -- COMBINES
WITH 850 MB WINDS THAT VEERED FOLLOWING INITIAL MCS TO YIELD
ENLARGED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. MODIFIED VWP AND RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW
300-600 J/KG SRH IN 0-3 KM LAYER.  ACCORDINGLY...SRM DATA INDICATES
ROTATION IN SOME CELLS NEAR MARINE FRONT...AND ANY SFC-BASED STORM
NEAR COAST WILL BEAR THREAT FOR TORNADOES.  DAMAGING GUSTS ALSO MAY
REACH SFC IN ANY LEWP/BOW FORMATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING COLD
FRONTAL CONVECTIVE LINE.

..EDWARDS.. 12/15/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...

29328472 29468586 29748733 29918733 30608702 30448575
30178487 29948447 

WWWW