[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 150831
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150831 
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-151030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2565
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0231 AM CST THU DEC 15 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN AL...FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 896...

VALID 150831Z - 151030Z

WW MAY BE CLEARED BEHIND PRIMARY SQUALL LINE MOVING EWD OVER
WRN-MOST FL PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT MARINE ZONES OF FL/AL BORDER
REGION.  ALSO...PRIND WW MAY BE REMOVED OVER REMAINING SERN AL
COUNTIES.  RAIN-COOLED AIR MASS ACROSS SERN AL...WELL N OF MARINE
FRONT IN GULF -- WILL NOT RECOVER ENOUGH TO ALLOW NEARLY SFC-BASED
LIFTED PARCELS...BEFORE PRIMARY CONVERGENCE BAND PASSES.

SFC COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM NRN PORTION MS/AL BORDER SSWWD
ACROSS MSY AREA AND INTO NWRN GULF.  MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND PRECEDES
COLD FRONT BY APPROXIMATELY 125 NM OVER GULF AND NNEWD INTO WRN-MOST
FL PANHANDLE.  MARINE/WARM FRONT IS ANALYZED NEAR BUOYS 42039 AND
42020...50-70 NM OFFSHORE AND DRIFTING NWD.  BOW/LEWP FORMATIONS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY OVER OFFSHORE WATERS OVER AND
S OF MARINE FRONT.  TORNADO AND SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE
DIMINISHING WITH EWD EXTENT AND WITH TIME BECAUSE OF
1. LOWER THETAE AND WEAKER BUOYANCY IN INFLOW LAYER INLAND AND
2. DECREASING PROBABILITY THAT MARINE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY
LAYER BUOYANCY WILL REACH LAND.

INDEED...MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE SBCAPE AND MLCAPE IS
ENTIRELY OFFSHORE NOW. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP
ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT BUT BEHIND INITIAL SQUALL LINE. 
SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE TOO MINIMAL TO
MAINTAIN WW BEHIND INITIAL CONVECTION. EXPECT RELATIVELY VEERED
FLOW NEAR SFC AND ASSOCIATED REDUCTION OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR...COMBINED
WITH REDUCED BUOYANCY IN POSTCONVECTIVE AIR MASS.

..EDWARDS.. 12/15/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...

29878505 29708592 29748733 29918733 31298709 31688534
31318501 30108503 

WWWW